Running Back Projections

1. David Johnson- Arizona Cardinals

If you owned Johnson last season, you most likely went far in your fantasy league. Running backs have lacked in production over the last few years, but the position was rejuvenated in 2016 led by Johnson. The 25-year-old produced so amazingly that he posted the most fantasy points from a running back since Chris Johnson in 2009. The Cardinals are a run-heavy team that is willing to give Johnson 30 touches a game. The young star is an elite runner and receiver who ranked 2nd in rushing touchdowns, 1st in catches, 1st in receiving yards, and 1st in fantasy points for running backs. Everyone can agree that Johnson, Bell, and Elliot are the three top backs in the league, right? Well Johnson is the most complete and reliable because Bell has trouble playing a full season, and Elliot doesn’t produce receiving numbers. Johnson should be drafted #1 overall in standard and PPR leagues.

2. LeV’eon Bell- Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell missed the first month of the season due to a suspension, and was still stunningly able to rank 4th in fantasy points for running backs. Bell is a gifted athlete and a generational talent. The Steelers franchise back ranked 5th in rushing yards, 2nd in catches, and 2nd in receiving yards. Last season, Bell also averaged an insane 20.2 fantasy points a game (3rd most since 2010). Bell is the centerpiece of one of the top offenses in the league. If Bell plays a full season he may break fantasy records.

3. Ezekiel Elliot- Dallas Cowboys

Last year Elliot was one of the top running back prospects the NFL had seen in a while, and he didn’t disappoint one bit. As a rookie, Elliot ranked 1st in rushes, 1st in rushing yards, 3rd in rushing touchdowns, and 2nd in fantasy points for running backs last year. The 21-year-old was put in the best position for success, landing on a team with the best offensive line in the NFL. Elliot has incredible downfield vision, is not shy of contact, and is untouchable in the open. The Cowboys star is clearly something special and should continue his dominance into 2017.

4. Jay Ajayi- Miami Dolphins

Ajayi was awesome in college, but dropped to the 5th round of the 2015 draft, due to knee concerns. The Dolphins couldn’t pass up his talent and potential and drafted him. Well, it didn’t take long for Ajayi to prove he’s the real deal and should have been drafted earlier. The 24-year old took over the starting duties in his second season in the league (2016) and wildly impressed. Ajayi ranked 4th in rushing yards, T-11th in rushing touchdowns, and 11th in fantasy points for running backs last year. The Dolphins have completely committed to Ajayi and are willing to give him a massive workload this season. He’s a high-potential RB1.

5. Melvin Gordon- Los Angeles Chargers

Running backs were so productive in 2016 that Gordon’s 8th place ranking would have ranked 3rd in fantasy points in 2015. Gordon mightily struggled in his rookie season, failing to even score a single touchdown! However, 2016 was a completely different story. Gordon was an absolute animal, producing 1,416 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. The addition of Anthony Lynn (the Chargers new head coach), who in Buffalo made LeSean McCoy elite again, suggests the Chargers want to continue to run the ball more. The breakout star is only 24 years old and has many more elite seasons ahead of him.

6. Jordan Howard- Chicago Bears

Howard started the season as the Bears #3 running back on their depth chart, yet ended up producing the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFL. The rookie didn’t get the props he deserved because he was massively overlooked by Ezekiel Elliot. The Bears running back was remarkably efficient last year, posting a crazy 5.2 YPC. The Bears are a run-heavy team, which is great news for the fifth round draft pick. Howard is the only positive part of the Bears abysmal offense. At only 22 years old, Howard is going to be a sneaky fantasy star this season.

7. Devonte Freeman- Atlanta Falcons

There were concerns of whether Freeman could repeat his elite breakout season in 2015. Those concerns disappeared when he ranked 6th in rushing touchdowns, 5th in catches, 5th in receiving yards, and 6th in total fantasy points for all running backs. Freeman had a much lighter workload in 2016, 37 less rushes than he had the previous season, but he still produced big numbers. The 25-year old running back’s ability to produce rushing and receiving numbers at will, makes him a reliable RB1. Don’t pass on Freeman because of shared touches. He proved that to a bad decision last year.

8. LeSean McCoy- Buffalo Bills

McCoy was starting to fall off the map with rough 2014 and 2015 seasons, but got back to his elite ways in 2016. McCoy ranked 6th in rushing yards, 4th in rushing touchdowns, and 3rd in fantasy points for running backs last season. However, I still have concerns with him. McCoy is a big injury risk and is climbing up in age. Anthony Lynn also left, who was a big factor in McCoy bouncing back. Expect the 29-year old to have a bit of a step-back season, but still in the low- RB1, high-RB2 conversation.

9. DeMarco Murray- Tennessee Titans

Murray was the entire recap of the 2014 season, rushing for the 3rd most yards for all backs still present in the NFL. However, Murray left Dallas to Philly and fell victim to Chip Kelly’s awful running back system. Most thought the 29-year old back was done and had nothing left in the tank. Murray was traded to Tennessee in 2016 after one season in Philly. Once again, the doubters were wrong, and Murray bounced back strong last year. The Titans starting running back is in a young, underrated offense and should excel again this year. Murray is a low-RB1, high-RB2 with little risk.

10. Todd Gurley- Los Angeles Rams

Gurley is a fascinating topic of conversation. Gurley was quickly being compared to Adrian Peterson after being drafted 10th overall in the 2015 draft and flourishing in his first season in the league. Gurley was a popular early first round selection last season and did what no one saw coming. The young Ram suffered a major sophomore slump and was the biggest bust of the year. What happened? The Rams passing offense and offense line were atrocious and Gurley struggled to find the holes. However, I don’t think Gurley has received the treatment he deserves. Gurley is still only a kid at 22 years old and is likely to bounce back. The Rams starting back is insanely fast and the most talented player on the offense. Gurley is a risky high-end RB1 with upside.

Honorable Mentions in order: Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Charles, Lamar Miller, Adrian Peterson.