Tight End

1. Rob Gronkowski- New England Patriots

Gronk has proven he’s undoubtedly the most productive and polarizing tight end in the league when he’s on the field. The 28-year-old stud has led his position in fantasy points for 3 out of the last 6 years. The only reason he didn’t rank 1st the other 3 years was because he missed 5 or more games due to injuries. Is Gronk a risk? Totally, but it’s the best risk you can take in fantasy football because if he stays healthy, it is an absolute guarantee he posts the most fantasy points for his position.

2. Travis Kelce- Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce unleashed his potential last season, leading tight ends in fantasy points and proving he has a higher ceiling than many expected. The Chiefs star had a monster second half of the season in 2016, producing  six 100+ yard games in the second half of the season. Kelce is very reliable, having played 3 consecutive 16 game seasons. If he got more red zone looks, he would be my #1. The Chiefs dropped Jeremy Maclin and have thin receiving talent, so Kelce should see even more looks.

3. Greg Olsen- Carolina Panthers

Mr. consistent came through with another great year last season. He exceeded 1,000 yards for the 3rd straight season, and 70 catches for the 4th straight season. Olsen has also played 9 straight full seasons and is the most consistent and reliable tight end you’ll find. However, he caught only 3 touchdowns last year; his lowest total since his rookie season. This hurt his fantasy value. The good news is that his 2016 touchdown total was an outliar, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t bounce back here.

4. Jordan Reed- Washington Redskins

Similar to Gronk, Reed carries a rare talent and production when on the field, but is constantly injured. Reed’s injury dilemma is actually worse than Gronk because Reed has yet to play a full season in his career. The 27-year-old Redskin played the most games in a season in his career in 2015 (14), and ranked 2nd in fantasy points at his position. The Redskins let their top 2 wide receivers walk this offseason (Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson), which will make room for even more passes Reed’s way. The man is physically gifted, but if you draft him, make sure to have a reliable backup.

5. Delanie Walker- Tennessee Titans

Walker is one of the most underrated player at his position. The reliable Titan has played in 15+ games in 6 straight seasons, and has ranked in the top 5 for fantasy points for tight ends over the last 2 years. The 32-year-old tight end is in a young, up and coming offense with an evolving quarterback in Marcus Mariota. Walker is the top receiver on the Titans and has ranked 2nd in targets over the last 2 years combined. The guy is almost always on the field, and produces substantial yardage and touchdown totals.

6. Jimmy Graham- Seattle Seahawks

There were questions whether Graham would ever be the same after he ruptured his patellar tendon in 2015, causing him to miss the rest of the season. The 30-year-old stud came back strong, proving even the worst of injuries can’t stop him. He ranked 2nd in fantasy points last year, which was his highest ranking since 2013. With an elite Russell Wilson throwing to him, Graham should continue his great play.

7. Kyle Rudolph- Minnesota Vikings

Rudolph has been a sleeper waiting to breakout for some years now. Finally it happened in 2016. Terry Bridgewater’s devastating injury last offseason was the best thing that ever happened to Rudolph’s fantasy value. Sam Bradford’s arrival caused Rudolph to see a large increase in looks. The 27-year-old ranked in the top 5 in yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points for tight ends last year. He also impressively led tight ends in targets. Rudolph is Bradford’s top weapon and should see another strong year in 2017.

8. Tyler Eifert- Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert has been a tough player to own. The Bengals tight end has played in only 37 games, and has missed 27 games in his 4 year career. That is an awful ratio. Eifert became very popular after his huge 2015 season where he led tight ends in touchdowns. 2016 was a disaster. He played only 8 games due to injury, and he was terrible in those games. Eifert is a low-end TE1 with major risk and significant upside.

9. Hunter Henry- Los Angeles Chargers

Hunter Henry was able to showcase his talent last season after half of the Chargers receivers got injured. The rookie showed a high ceiling and a promising future by leading tight ends in touchdowns. Henry is only 22 years old and has the old reliable Philip Rivers throwing to him. Targets will be an issue with Antonio Gates still in town, but expect elite touchdown numbers again from the Arkansas graduate. Rivers has always loved throwing to tight ends in the red zone.

10. Eric Ebron- Detroit Lions

Ebron was the top tight end drafted in the 2014 draft and was expected to make an immediate impact. Well, that hasn’t quite been the case. Ebron has struggled to make a fantasy impact. Ebron set career highs in catches and yards last year, but caught only 1 touchdown. The young Lion has also struggled with injuries, and has yet to play a full season. So why is he ranked in the top 10? Ebron is primed for a breakout year in 2017. He made big strides, setting career highs in catches and yards last season, and is likely to see more red zone looks this year with Anquan Bolden gone. Ebron is only 24 years old and has plenty of time to evolve.

Honorable Mentions in order: Martellus Bennett, Zach Ertz, Cameron Brate, Jack Doyle, Julius Thomas, C.J. Fiedorowictz, Coby Fleener.

 

Wide Receivers

1. Antonio Brown- Pittsburgh Steelers

Brown is so good that he still ranked 3rd in fantasy points for wide receivers last year, despite having his worst statistical season since 2012. Brown has dominated the NFL over the last four years, and is being referred to as the Calvin Johnson of this generation. The all-pro wide out has been recently a popular first overall pick in fantasy leagues and has ranked 1st in fantasy points for wide outs in 2 out of the last 3 years. Brown is very reliable, having only missed one game over the last 4 years, and is part of an elite offense.

2. Julio Jones- Atlanta Falcons

The athletic freak has proved to be the hardest receiver to cover in the NFL. Amazing length and height, he is practically unstoppable. Jones has ranked in the top 3 in receiving yards for 3 straight years, and catches in 2 out of the last 3 years. Jones is in a top-tier offense with a star quarterback constantly throwing him dimes. It’s a mistake if he’s not taken in the first round of your draft.

3. Jordy Nelson- Green Bay Packers

Nelson missed the entire 2015 season with a brutal torn ACL. There were questions of whether he could ever come back to where he left off before the injury. Nelson thrived in 2017, winning the comeback player of the year and proving he’s still elite. The Packers #1 receiver has ranked in the top 2 in fantasy points for wide receivers in his last two years he’s played. The deep ball king has the best quarterback in the NFL (Aaron Rodgers) throwing to him. He’s a high-end WR1 for sure.

4. Mike Evans- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans had a huge rookie season, but suffered a sophomore slump in 2015. The 6’5” giant came back in 2016, and produced a hall of fame numbers season. Last year, Evans ranked 1st in targets, 6th in catches, 4th in receiving yards, T-2nd in receiving touchdowns, and 2nd in total fantasy points for wide outs. Evans is in a young, developing offense with a talented quarterback in Jameis Winston who loves throwing him the ball. At 23 years old, Evans has out of the roof potential.

5. Odell Beckham Jr.- New York Giants

Love him or hate him, you have to acknowledge the fact that he’s of one of the most gifted athletes the league has ever seen. Odell has only been in the league for 3 years and has already got the attention of the whole country. In each of his 3 years in the league, he has exceeded 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Also, Odell is one of the few stud receivers with only a mediocre quarterback. Expect this media sensation to continue to dominate.

6. Dez Bryant- Dallas Cowboys

Bryant had a disastrous career worst 2015 season, consisting of injuries and on-field struggles. Bryant also struggled with injuries in 2016, missing most of the first half of the season. However, he was a beast in the second half of the season, producing 5 double-digit games. Bryant is a strong and fast receiver in an offense with a young developing quarterback in Dak Prescott. If the 28-year old receiver stays healthy, he’s going to have a big year.

7. A.J. Green- Cincinnati Bengals

2016 was the first year in Green’s career where he didn’t reach 1,000 yards. You can blame injuries for that. Green was once one of the most reliable and consistent receivers in the league, but injuries have been making it difficult for that to continue. The 28-year-old wide out has missed 9 games over the last 3 years, which has hurt his fantasy value. The good news is that Green has never missed games in back to back seasons, and he missed 6 games last year, so it’s likely he’ll play a full season in 2017. In all of Green’s full-played seasons, he’s ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points, catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns.

8. Keenan Allen- Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen has gotten the injury curse, along with the rest of the unfortunate Chargers team. Allen has proved to be one of the most productive receivers in the league when he’s healthy, but has only played in 9 games over the last 2 years. He’s only played in half a game since 2015. Is he worth the risk? Yes. If Allen plays a full season, I promise he’ll have at least 100 catches, 1,300 yards, and 8 touchdowns. The 25-year-old has a very talented quarterback in Philip Rivers, who loves to sling Allen the ball. He’s a high-risk, high-reward low-end WR1.

9. T.Y. Hilton- Indianapolis Colts

Hilton has proven his reliability, having surpassed 1,000 yards in 4 straight seasons now. Hilton is a yard machine, leading the league in receiving yards last year and having exceeded 1,300 yards in 2 out of the last 3 years. If it weren’t for the lack of touchdowns, I would’ve ranked Hilton in the top 5. The 27-year-old wide out has only totaled 11 touchdowns over the past 2 years, and has never reached 8 touchdowns in a single season. Still, Hilton is Andrew Luck’s top target and racks up plenty of yards, making him a reliable low-end WR1.

10. Michael Thomas- New Orleans Saints

The former Ohio State graduate had a surprisingly big rookie season in 2016. The Saints had a crowded depth chart of receivers, but the rookie Thomas quickly became the most productive. Thomas ranked in the top 10 in catches, receiving yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points for all wide outs. Now with Brandin Cooks gone to New England, Thomas is the Saints clear-cut #1 target. The 24 year old is going to only get better with Drew Brees throwing the ball.

Honorable Mentions in order: Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks,  Tyreek Hill, Jamison Crowder, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Baldwin, Terrelle Pyror.

 

 

 

Running Back Projections

1. David Johnson- Arizona Cardinals

If you owned Johnson last season, you most likely went far in your fantasy league. Running backs have lacked in production over the last few years, but the position was rejuvenated in 2016 led by Johnson. The 25-year-old produced so amazingly that he posted the most fantasy points from a running back since Chris Johnson in 2009. The Cardinals are a run-heavy team that is willing to give Johnson 30 touches a game. The young star is an elite runner and receiver who ranked 2nd in rushing touchdowns, 1st in catches, 1st in receiving yards, and 1st in fantasy points for running backs. Everyone can agree that Johnson, Bell, and Elliot are the three top backs in the league, right? Well Johnson is the most complete and reliable because Bell has trouble playing a full season, and Elliot doesn’t produce receiving numbers. Johnson should be drafted #1 overall in standard and PPR leagues.

2. LeV’eon Bell- Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell missed the first month of the season due to a suspension, and was still stunningly able to rank 4th in fantasy points for running backs. Bell is a gifted athlete and a generational talent. The Steelers franchise back ranked 5th in rushing yards, 2nd in catches, and 2nd in receiving yards. Last season, Bell also averaged an insane 20.2 fantasy points a game (3rd most since 2010). Bell is the centerpiece of one of the top offenses in the league. If Bell plays a full season he may break fantasy records.

3. Ezekiel Elliot- Dallas Cowboys

Last year Elliot was one of the top running back prospects the NFL had seen in a while, and he didn’t disappoint one bit. As a rookie, Elliot ranked 1st in rushes, 1st in rushing yards, 3rd in rushing touchdowns, and 2nd in fantasy points for running backs last year. The 21-year-old was put in the best position for success, landing on a team with the best offensive line in the NFL. Elliot has incredible downfield vision, is not shy of contact, and is untouchable in the open. The Cowboys star is clearly something special and should continue his dominance into 2017.

4. Jay Ajayi- Miami Dolphins

Ajayi was awesome in college, but dropped to the 5th round of the 2015 draft, due to knee concerns. The Dolphins couldn’t pass up his talent and potential and drafted him. Well, it didn’t take long for Ajayi to prove he’s the real deal and should have been drafted earlier. The 24-year old took over the starting duties in his second season in the league (2016) and wildly impressed. Ajayi ranked 4th in rushing yards, T-11th in rushing touchdowns, and 11th in fantasy points for running backs last year. The Dolphins have completely committed to Ajayi and are willing to give him a massive workload this season. He’s a high-potential RB1.

5. Melvin Gordon- Los Angeles Chargers

Running backs were so productive in 2016 that Gordon’s 8th place ranking would have ranked 3rd in fantasy points in 2015. Gordon mightily struggled in his rookie season, failing to even score a single touchdown! However, 2016 was a completely different story. Gordon was an absolute animal, producing 1,416 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. The addition of Anthony Lynn (the Chargers new head coach), who in Buffalo made LeSean McCoy elite again, suggests the Chargers want to continue to run the ball more. The breakout star is only 24 years old and has many more elite seasons ahead of him.

6. Jordan Howard- Chicago Bears

Howard started the season as the Bears #3 running back on their depth chart, yet ended up producing the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFL. The rookie didn’t get the props he deserved because he was massively overlooked by Ezekiel Elliot. The Bears running back was remarkably efficient last year, posting a crazy 5.2 YPC. The Bears are a run-heavy team, which is great news for the fifth round draft pick. Howard is the only positive part of the Bears abysmal offense. At only 22 years old, Howard is going to be a sneaky fantasy star this season.

7. Devonte Freeman- Atlanta Falcons

There were concerns of whether Freeman could repeat his elite breakout season in 2015. Those concerns disappeared when he ranked 6th in rushing touchdowns, 5th in catches, 5th in receiving yards, and 6th in total fantasy points for all running backs. Freeman had a much lighter workload in 2016, 37 less rushes than he had the previous season, but he still produced big numbers. The 25-year old running back’s ability to produce rushing and receiving numbers at will, makes him a reliable RB1. Don’t pass on Freeman because of shared touches. He proved that to a bad decision last year.

8. LeSean McCoy- Buffalo Bills

McCoy was starting to fall off the map with rough 2014 and 2015 seasons, but got back to his elite ways in 2016. McCoy ranked 6th in rushing yards, 4th in rushing touchdowns, and 3rd in fantasy points for running backs last season. However, I still have concerns with him. McCoy is a big injury risk and is climbing up in age. Anthony Lynn also left, who was a big factor in McCoy bouncing back. Expect the 29-year old to have a bit of a step-back season, but still in the low- RB1, high-RB2 conversation.

9. DeMarco Murray- Tennessee Titans

Murray was the entire recap of the 2014 season, rushing for the 3rd most yards for all backs still present in the NFL. However, Murray left Dallas to Philly and fell victim to Chip Kelly’s awful running back system. Most thought the 29-year old back was done and had nothing left in the tank. Murray was traded to Tennessee in 2016 after one season in Philly. Once again, the doubters were wrong, and Murray bounced back strong last year. The Titans starting running back is in a young, underrated offense and should excel again this year. Murray is a low-RB1, high-RB2 with little risk.

10. Todd Gurley- Los Angeles Rams

Gurley is a fascinating topic of conversation. Gurley was quickly being compared to Adrian Peterson after being drafted 10th overall in the 2015 draft and flourishing in his first season in the league. Gurley was a popular early first round selection last season and did what no one saw coming. The young Ram suffered a major sophomore slump and was the biggest bust of the year. What happened? The Rams passing offense and offense line were atrocious and Gurley struggled to find the holes. However, I don’t think Gurley has received the treatment he deserves. Gurley is still only a kid at 22 years old and is likely to bounce back. The Rams starting back is insanely fast and the most talented player on the offense. Gurley is a risky high-end RB1 with upside.

Honorable Mentions in order: Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Charles, Lamar Miller, Adrian Peterson.

 

 

Quarterback Projections

The football season is closer than your think, and is only a couple of months away. If you want to be successful in your leagues this year, you better start prepping now. This week I’m writing about my quarterback projections. I will answer common questions; will Cam Newton bounce back this year, is Derek Carr the real deal, and is Big Ben worth reaching for?

1. Aaron Rodgers- Green Bay Packers

After winning his second MVP in 2014 and posting ridiculous numbers, Rodgers struggled in 2015. He set career lows in completion percentage, yards per game, touchdown percentage, and quarterback rating (as a starter). This set-back season worried fantasy owners. Luckily he was able to successfully rebound in 2016. Rodgers led quarterbacks in fantasy points last season. Rodgers has everything going for him: jaw-dropping athleticism and accuracy, an elite group of receivers, and being smack in his prime.

2. Tom Brady- New England Patriots

If you had the patience to wait until week 5 for Brady, your result was pleasing. Brady put up stunning numbers last season, including posting the best TD:INT ratio of all time, and he legitimately seems to be getting better as he gets older. Brady also produced the second completion percentage and quarterback rating in his career. The additions of Brandin Cooks and Dwayne Allen gives the two-time MVP the best set of weapons he’s ever had. Expect huge numbers once again from the greatest quarterback of all-time.

3. Cam Newton- Carolina Panthers

Newton went from Superman MVP in 2015 to a forgotten disappointment in 2016. So what happened? Was this set-back season caused by the loss of Josh Norman? Was it the poor play of Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin? Was it because Cam was injured? Or was it because Newton was forced to do too much and simply under-performed? It was all of those things combined that contributed to a poor season for the Panthers star quarterback. However, I am confident Cam will rebound strongly in 2017. Newton has time to heal and get his chemistry back with Kelvin Benjamin, and build it with Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey. He’s too talented to be a one-year wonder; expect a bounce back season.

4. Matt Ryan- Atlanta Falcons

Ryan was always a consistent second/third tier guy, but last year he reached heights most didn’t think he could reach. Ryan was a fantasy star in 2016, ranking 2nd in passing yards, 2nd in touchdowns, and 1st in quarterback rating. Along with his huge fantasy success, Ryan also led his team to the Super Bowl, and won his first MVP. Repeating 2016 will be difficult, but the Falcons stud QB still has all of his favorite targets from last year, so he shall still thrive.

5. Derek Carr- Oakland Raiders

Carr built his name up after a nice breakout season last year. Carr put himself in the MVP conversation last year, despite having it been only his second season in the league. The 26-year-old QB ranked T-7th in touchdowns and threw only 6 interceptions in 2016. Carr has a great offensive line and decent weapons. I can’t wait to watch him and Amari Cooper grow together, who have both been in the league for two years. Carr is the real deal.

6. Drew Brees- New Orleans Saints

Similar to Brady, Brees has stunningly yet to see any decrease in production as his age gets into the upper 30’s. The Saints all-pro quarterback has been a very reliable high-end QB1, and has led the league in passing yards for three consecutive seasons. The reason I think his production may slightly dip is because of the offense. The Saints added Adrian Peterson and now have two elite running backs. This is a clear indicator that they are going to run the ball more. Also, Brees lost his number one target in Brandin Cooks. Still, Brees should be drafted as a starter in all leagues.

7. Jameis Winston- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This ranking may be a surprise to many, but I’m a Jameis Winston fan and believer. The former #1 overall pick has had two back to back solid seasons, and is ready to take his game to the next level this year. Winston has now gotten a feel for the NFL life, and has a much-needed upgraded wide receiver corps. The additions of DeSean Jackson and Chris Goodwin will be huge for Winston’s growth, and will take pressure off of Mike Evans. Expect a breakout season from the young developer.

8. Philip Rivers- Los Angeles Chargers

Don’t tell me you didn’t see this coming. If you didn’t know, I’m a huge Rivers fan and draft him every year in fantasy. Rivers is super underrated, but posts great numbers each season, despite his top receivers getting hurt every year. I will admit 2016 was sloppy. He turned the ball over way to much. The exciting parts of last year was that Rivers ranked 5th in passing yards and 4th in touchdowns. The Chargers now have a new coach, a healthy receiving corps, and a new high-hoped receiver (Mike Williams). Treat Rivers like the low range QB1 that he is.

9. Marcus Mariota- Tennessee Titans

The mobile former Oregon quarterback enjoyed a great sophomore season. In 2016, Mariota tossed 26 touchdowns (7 less than 2015) and only 9 interceptions (1 less than 2015). Despite very weak options in the passing game, Mariota’s spectacular athleticism and leadership boosted the Titans star to a reliable QB1 last season. The problem here is that the 23-year old has been in the league for only two years and has already sprained his knee and broken his leg. If Mariota is able to stay healthy he’s going to be awesome, but that is an if. He’s a high-risk, high-reward guy.

10. Ben Roethlisberger- Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s hard to deny the fact that Big Ben is one of the most overrated player in fantasy. Despite constantly being drafted as a top 5 quarterback, Roethlisberger has ranked outside the top 15 in fantasy points in the last two seasons. Actually, Ben has only ranked inside the top 10 twice over the last 7 years. So why is he always drafted high? His ceiling is enormous. Ben has a great arm, elite offensive line, and absurdly talented receivers. If only he could stay healthy and not throw a ton of interceptions. If he drops low in your draft, he’s worth the risk, but I wouldn’t reach for him.

 

 

Honorable Mentions in order: Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Mathew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton.